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What each CommerceTrace verdict means

Every result is graded by how much the evidence supports. The grade says how sure CommerceTrace is that something is wrong. It never says why.

Confirmed

The evidence directly shows the problem. For a missing order this means GA4 has no purchase under any of the order's IDs and the order is past GA4's late-event limit (more than two calendar days, plus today), so a purchase can no longer arrive. A GA4 purchase whose value or currency differs from the order, in a way CommerceTrace cannot explain, is confirmed too.

Suspected

The evidence points to a problem but does not prove it, or the picture may still change. Three things are graded this way:

• An order with no GA4 purchase that is older than 6 hours but still inside GA4's late-event limit. It may yet arrive.
• A run of orders in a row, close together in time, that are all missing. It is reported as a possible incident window. CommerceTrace does not say what broke.
• A GA4 purchase with no Shopify order in the period. It could be a test or hard-coded ID, another store, or an order outside the period.

Inconclusive

The evidence does not support a verdict, so CommerceTrace gives none, and says what is missing. In the report these appear as “too early to judge” or with the reason named. The reasons are:

• The order is under 6 hours old, or its creation time could not be read.
• The order was placed close to the start or end of the audit period, where GA4 may have filed its purchase under a date the audit did not ask about.
• The order was cancelled, or its total is zero, and GA4 has no purchase for it. Many setups send no purchase for these on purpose.
• GA4 reported a limit on the report: an (other) row, thresholding or sampling.
• A GA4 purchase has no transaction ID, or an ID that could belong to more than one order, so it cannot be attached safely.
• GA4 reports revenue in another currency than the store charges, so the value cannot be compared.
• GA4 shows a repeated purchase in a report row, which does not prove two separate tag fires.
• A purchase request was seen in flight and its delivery could not be confirmed.

When GA4 flags the whole period as unreliable, the list of missing orders is shown as unconfirmed, with a warning, and is not a confirmed count.

Expected

A known difference that is not a tracking problem. These are not counted as missing, and each carries its reason:

• Shopify test orders, on live stores. On a development store they are the only orders there are, so they are checked like real ones and the report says so.
• In-person (point-of-sale) sales, subscription renewals, and draft orders a staff member marked as paid by hand, which have no online checkout. Only when GA4 has no purchase for them.
• GA4 purchases recorded on another *.myshopify.com store that shares your GA4 property.

In the order breakdown these show as “not counted”, with what kind of order they are.

What a verdict does not tell you

• The cause. A confirmed missing order means GA4 never recorded it. It does not say whether a tag failed, consent was declined or a request was blocked.
• A final count. A suspected order can move to confirmed as it ages, or to matched if GA4 receives it late.
• Anything about shoppers. Verdicts are about orders and purchase events, never about people.

Why GA4 purchases don't match Shopify orders · What CommerceTrace can and can't see